SCOOTER POST: SCOOTER CHAT AT BONDLADY'S - 6-7-2012

Hi Folks,


Here's a recent Chat at BondLady's.


Enjoy,


Scooter


-----------------------------------------------------------

Scooters Chat 6-7-12
[helend] Scooter, plz read this art and explain if u could, if this is anything similar in reference to what u were talking about weeks ago, about Iraq diversifying in the economy and having bonds...obviously this has a greater affect on the strength of their dinar. (I hope I worded that correctly, that u could understand what I mean, basically, explain the significance of the bonds in reguard to Iraq's economy.)Ty
http://www.bondladyscorner.com/t45139-central-bank-sovereign-bonds-of-iraq-the-most-expensive-in-the-world

[Scooter-EG] ok -- let me gander
[Scooter-EG] I'll be fast
[Scooter-EG] Could you provide the link one more time
[Scooter-EG] got it
[Scooter-EG] sorry
[helend] Scooter-EG hang on one sec
[helend] http://www.bondladyscorn ··· he-world
[helend] try that
[Scooter-EG] WOW
[helend] Scooter-EG did that work for you
[Scooter-EG] Nice article
[helend] Scooter-EG whoops guess it did !
[Scooter-EG] Who asked that question
[helend] Scooter-EG lucky
[Scooter-EG] Great question and YES
[Scooter-EG] that's exactly what I was speaking about

[Scooter-EG] what's interesting is this section right here
[Scooter-EG] Central Bank of Iraq said that "international sovereign Iraqi bonds issued under the Paris Club granted a higher interest rate / not specified / purchased at prices which makes it expensive compared to the rest of the sovereign bonds rose for the rest of the countries that confer benefits by about 2%."

[Scooter-EG] that higher interest rate is key to attracting the big industrial type investors
[Scooter-EG] that extra 2% becomes critical in the long run when you're talking about Billions of $$$$
[Scooter-EG] it's also interesting that they are leveraging the paris club agreement
[Scooter-EG] and here's why
[Scooter-EG] that debt relief took out 80%
[Scooter-EG] of the debt from the debt paying countries
[Scooter-EG] remember
[Scooter-EG] the arab states really never adopted
[Scooter-EG] the Paris Club Agreements
[Scooter-EG] and still hold Iraq accountable for the much of the thier sovereign debt

[Scooter-EG] but here's the interesting part
[Scooter-EG] those countries like the US, Western European nations, etc..

[Scooter-EG] will now be able to earn an extra 2%
[Scooter-EG] perhaps that was part of the overall package with the Paris Club members
[Scooter-EG] But that really outstanding
[Scooter-EG] I like that plan a lot

[Scooter-EG] Here's the other important part
[Scooter-EG] "The current account surplus in the balance of payments amounted to about Iraqi 10% ratio to GDP (national income)." Stressing that "this will enable the dinar rate of improvement because of the trend towards the adoption of central bank monetary policies successful."
[Scooter-EG] The Surplus in teh Balance of payments
[Scooter-EG] SURPLUS


[Scooter-EG] equated to 10%
[Scooter-EG] in essence
[Scooter-EG] they aren't really running a deficit at all these days
[Scooter-EG] So if Iraq's GDP is 100 Billion -- rounding off to make this easy
[Scooter-EG] A cool $10 billion is accounted for as a surplus
[Scooter-EG] Remember how countries gain wealth
[Scooter-EG] they do it by exporting

[Scooter-EG] equated to 10%
[Scooter-EG] in essence
[Scooter-EG] they aren't really running a deficit at all these days
[Scooter-EG] So if Iraq's GDP is 100 Billion -- rounding off to make this easy
[Scooter-EG] A cool $10 billion is accounted for as a surplus
[Scooter-EG] Remember how countries gain wealth
[Scooter-EG] they do it by exporting

[Scooter-EG] the wealthier they become
[Scooter-EG] it's the countries that import more than they export that tend to get themselves into trouble
[Scooter-EG] unless they have huge domestic consumption
[Scooter-EG] which Iraq does not
[Scooter-EG] Great question
[Scooter-EG] sorry about that ramble
[Scooter-EG] but YES Lucky

[Scooter-EG] that's exactly what i was speaking about
[Scooter-EG] thanks for the question
[Scooter-EG] next[helend] scooter, in your opinions only, if the dinar revalues at 1 to 1 how much time do you beleive it will take to revalue at what it was before the war thanks lightingcslt
[Scooter-EG] haaaaah !
[Scooter-EG] I have absolutely no idea
[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm
[Scooter-EG] I remember doing a model once
[mm] BLONDE
[Scooter-EG] taking normal growth using Fibronacci
[Scooter-EG] statistics on a monthly basis

[Scooter-EG] mm Indeed
[Scooter-EG] wait
[Scooter-EG] I have dark hair
[Scooter-EG] hmmmm
[Scooter-EG] nevertheless
[Scooter-EG] here's where it gets difficult

[Scooter-EG] because we would have to place a fixed growth over a time period
[Scooter-EG] and that's just not feasible

[DannyG] Scooter-EG hey
[Scooter-EG] Hey DannyG
[Scooter-EG] but if it were to be fixed

[Scooter-EG] and all the other variables were to do the same
[Scooter-EG] It would take a 30 month to 48 month window to jump -- perhaps even five years
[Scooter-EG] it just depends

[Scooter-EG] What's certain though
[Scooter-EG] is that they need to stablelize the prices

[Scooter-EG] and oil will need to stay at the current prices to
[Scooter-EG] continue this growth
[Scooter-EG] and according the IMF recent presentation in Tokyo


[Scooter-EG] Oil is not going downward in the long term
[Scooter-EG] It could
[Scooter-EG] normal currencies
[Scooter-EG] don't jump like this
[Scooter-EG] If a currency jumps 20% over five years
[Scooter-EG] that's very significant
[Scooter-EG] and also
[Scooter-EG] I was using a simplistic model
[Scooter-EG] it didn't account for all the variables
[Scooter-EG] remember
[Scooter-EG] whenever a currency moves one PIP
[Scooter-EG] it runs through an algorithm that calculates

[Scooter-EG] over 1200 different measurements
[Scooter-EG] just to move that one pip
[Scooter-EG] PIP = Percentage Interest Point

[Scooter-EG] also -- what would happen if they put a 1.5% to 2.5% daily lock
[Scooter-EG] on the currency for the first 24 months
[Scooter-EG] In essence, the currency could only advance 2.5% a day
[Scooter-EG] that may not seem like a lot

[Scooter-EG] but it grows fast if that were the case
[Scooter-EG] ok
[Scooter-EG] next [helend] This may have been asked before, but I am still confused about the answer. Is there any way to estimate the amount of Dinar that is for sale through brokers, banks, currency exchanges and other financial institutions?? Seems to be an endless supply available to purchase?? Just curious as to why??
[Scooter-EG] oh yea

[Scooter-EG] who asked that question
[Scooter-EG] good question
[helend] sbxpress
[Scooter-EG] ummmmmm

[Scooter-EG] I don't know of any particular method to gage that information right now
[Scooter-EG] I just haven't seen any data on that one
[Scooter-EG] Great question though

[Scooter-EG] next [helend] question from member[crazydonk] im not a believer in the whole "world currency re-alignment "theory..but ask scooter does he think the banking woes in europe could be fixed with a Central Bank of europe ?
[Scooter-EG] NO
[Scooter-EG] In my opinion
[Scooter-EG] it's only a matter of time before the Euro is ......

[Scooter-EG] it's not a good situation right now
[Scooter-EG] the demand for the USD will skyrocket up

[Scooter-EG] and I suppose that's a good thing
[Scooter-EG] but what you need to look for
[Scooter-EG] when looking at the world global re-alignment
[Scooter-EG] is one thing
[Scooter-EG] in my opinion
[Scooter-EG] and my opinion only

[Scooter-EG] and that's the Petro Dollar
[Scooter-EG] If the USD loses the Petro Dollar
[Scooter-EG] WOW!
[Scooter-EG] I just don't even want to think about that one
[Scooter-EG] but here's the good news

[Scooter-EG] no other currency has the liquidity to support that kind of role

[Scooter-EG] I mean, the Great British Pound would have to be the closest

[Scooter-EG] so -- the USD I see being the safehaven

[Scooter-EG] for the next 24 months
[Scooter-EG] the Swiss will be stable
[Scooter-EG] just my opinion
[Scooter-EG] the yen will have some ups and downs -- but fairly stable overall

[Scooter-EG] but that's really it interms of supporting the purchasing of oil globally
[Scooter-EG] I hope that answered your question
[Scooter-EG] next
[helend] Scooter, I know we often crunch the numbers with you but I would like to hear your opinion on the economic ramifications of Maliki staying or going. Thank you for your partnership with BLC. --Shredd

[Scooter-EG] hmmmm -- you know what -- I'm the absolute wrong person to ask about the political environment in Iraq
[Scooter-EG] I honestly don't follow it
[Scooter-EG] but i think Malicki will probably
[Scooter-EG] be a main character there for quite some time to come
[Scooter-EG] he seems to have a resilience

[Scooter-EG] but either way, his impact on the currency getting stronger or staying the same
[Scooter-EG] in my opinion
[Scooter-EG] will become smaller and smaller over the long run
[Scooter-EG] Economic forces and the international community

[Scooter-EG] will have a much broader and stronger impact on the currency than one man
[Scooter-EG] even though he is the prime minister
[Scooter-EG] just my opinion
[Scooter-EG] Im probably wrong
[Scooter-EG] but we'll seee

[Scooter-EG] thanks for the question Shredd
[Scooter-EG] next
[helend] If the CBI and other banks are selling/auctioning off on a daily avg of $400 million dollars at a rate of 1166 dinars four days a week (400,000,000,000. X 4 days = 1.6 billion X 1166 dinars = roughly 1.86 trillion dinar. If this is correct then wouldn't all the dinar would be off the streets in less than 5 months, even with maintaining current street levels. If this correct in theory, then Iraq would RV their currency at that point having very little IQD to cover with their reserves. Am I correct in this line of thinking. If so could you give your thoughts on this. Thank you.

[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm
[Scooter-EG] who asked that question
[Scooter-EG] sorry
[helend] bibbier
[Scooter-EG] I just like to know who I m talking with
[Scooter-EG] thanks
[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm
[helend] np
[Scooter-EG] here's the thing with those auctions
[Scooter-EG] in some cases, Shabs just moves $$$$ from one balance sheet to another
[Scooter-EG] and what appears to be one thing occurring really is not
[Scooter-EG] so in terms of the auctions -- I really see that tool as the primary method\of controlling
[Scooter-EG] inflation
[Scooter-EG] it's really his biggest weapon to confront
[Scooter-EG] rising prices across the country
[Scooter-EG] so to answer your question

[Scooter-EG] that theory can calculate out many different ways
[Scooter-EG] but the reality, in my opinion,
[Scooter-EG] doesn't play out in my mind because we aren't seeing full transparency in those numbers
[Scooter-EG] Just my opinion
[Scooter-EG] sorry about the answer -- but it's just how I'm viewing things with those auctions
[Scooter-EG] in terms of blowing through the reserves

[Scooter-EG] I think that's specifically the reason, as I just outlined up above, why shabs has multiple balance sheets to play with ...
[Scooter-EG] JMO

[Scooter-EG] Ok 6 minutes left [helend] From me (helend) just in case you ask ...... would you like to give us an opinion as to where you feel we are in this investment today.
[Scooter-EG] one more question
[helend] Scooter-EG last question too,

[Scooter-EG] Too Funny
[helend] 6 minutes to make an opinion
[Scooter-EG] can I take three to think about it

[helend] Scooter-EG NO!

[Scooter-EG] ok -- Where are we today
[Scooter-EG] Too much fun

[Scooter-EG] I think we are heading for a Hybrid solution between

[Scooter-EG] the redenomination
[Scooter-EG] and the strategic goal of the country to increase the purchasing power of the people
[Scooter-EG] so what does that mean
[Scooter-EG] a process

[Scooter-EG] a process that will take time
[Scooter-EG] they will come out with the lower denoms first
[Scooter-EG] and maintain the fidelity of the larger notes

[Scooter-EG] suck those larger notes into the CBI

[Scooter-EG] and then slowly progress with moving the pricing to reflect the new CPI
[Scooter-EG] at the same time
[Scooter-EG] they launch their primary bond market

[Scooter-EG] and attract the big boy investors
[Scooter-EG] and
[Scooter-EG] at the same time
[Scooter-EG] take those surplus budget residuals since 2006

[Scooter-EG] and parlay those into miniture economic explosions
[Scooter-EG] in their primary vertical markets like Agriculture
[Scooter-EG] and mfg.
[Scooter-EG] Investment in items that get that young populace working
[Scooter-EG] and spending
[Scooter-EG] once those occur
[Scooter-EG] or at the same time

[Scooter-EG] they gradually bring or raise the value of the dinar
[Scooter-EG] with the bonds from foreign investors and their primary stakeholders
[Scooter-EG] providing the day to day liquidity

[Scooter-EG] and leveraging the growth markets that start to add to their GDP
[Scooter-EG] that's what I think will occur
[Scooter-EG] what they open up at
[Scooter-EG] nobody knows
[Scooter-EG] but
[Scooter-EG] it should be interesting
[Scooter-EG] helend
[helend] Scooter-EG yes sir?
[Scooter-EG] did that answer your question

[Scooter-EG] I hope so
[helend] Scooter-EG well if you would have said, I think it will RV tomorrow, I would have been much happier

[RickeyT] Scooter-EG so we can take a leave of absense from the dinar sites for a year or two?
[Scooter-EG] sorry
[helend] helend
[Scooter-EG] hmmmm
[Scooter-EG] If you want to
[Scooter-EG] but
[Scooter-EG] but
[Scooter-EG] but
[helend] Scooter-EG BUT WHAT?

[Scooter-EG] I'm typing --one second

[helend] Scooter-EG smartie
[Scooter-EG] but i think when we see the lower denoms
[Scooter-EG] floating into the market
[Scooter-EG] and being used exclusively by the people of iraq
[Scooter-EG] you'll see several significant jumps in the value

[Scooter-EG] largely because they'll need this to reflect the purchasing of common items

[Scooter-EG] food, milk, bread
[Scooter-EG] etc....
[Scooter-EG] ok

[Scooter-EG] fingerrs are toasted
[player46] Scooter-EG .. TY once again for your time and opinions.. we appreciate it..
[helend] Scooter-EG well we appreciate you Scooter!
[Scooter-EG] I would like to thank you for listening
[Scooter-EG] I hope that helped
[helend] Thank you for your time
[oogie] Scooter-EG hello and goodbye! Just got home!
[helend] you always have words of wisdom for us
[Scooter-EG] I appreciate the time
[Scooter-EG] I have fun here'
[Scooter-EG] and remember
[helend] WE appreciate your time
[Scooter-EG] nobody knows what's going to happen
[Gizmo1] Scooter-EG --- comeon lower denoms!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[campdav] Many thanks Scooter now I got to scoot
[campdav] BBL
[Scooter-EG] anything can happen
[Scooter-EG] campdav
[helend] campdav thanks
[Scooter-EG] thank you my friend
[Scooter-EG] I do too
[campdav] helend Scooter-EG
[Scooter-EG] hey
[Scooter-EG] where's oogie
[luckyintx] Scooter-EG thank you soooooooo much!!!
[Gizmo1] Scooter-EG - great job my friend -- as always
[oogie] Scooter-EG hey!
[Scooter-EG] You are so very welcome
[Scooter-EG] Gizmo1 -- thanks buddy --- your comment is much appreciated

ReValue.US Interview with Ali from Dinar Trade

Hi Folks,


This is an invite from the ReValue.US folks to our readers at Emerging Geo's.  If interested, simply review the instructions below for dial-in and PIN information.


Enjoy,


Scooter

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ReValue.US SPECIAL Event

Interview with Ali of Dinar Trade

Hosted by Proteus and Patriot

When:                                           WEDNESDAY - MAY 30th, 2012

Time:                                             9:00 PM EST

Call-in Number:                          760.569.7676     

Participant Pin:                           899947#    

Back-up Pin:                                892007#

---

We will attempt to ask the HARD QUESTIONS to ALI,

In a "Bare Knuckles" "No Holds Barred" Interview!

This interview will seek candid answers about the Dinar,

Our Investment, & The Questions No-One else will ask,

all will be exposed through ALI's Perspective!

The Interview will be broadcast LIVE to listeners

And also RECORDED for Playback at a later time!

This should be a very exciting & informative event for all.

(Time permitting Listener Questions to selected Guests could occur)

Tell your Friends,

Tell other Investors,

Tell everyone you know,

This is one Interview you won't want to miss!

---

SCOOTER CHAT AT BONDLADY's CORNER - 5-15-2012

HI FOLKS,


I HOPE ALL IS WELL.  HERE'S TUESDAY NIGHT'S CHAT OVER AT BL's CORNER. 

ENJOY,

SCOOTER
=================================
8:03 PM [priscilla927] Alright, kids....the countdown has begun....oogie ~ you ready?
8:03 PM [Scooter-EG]
8:03 PM [Scooter-EG]
8:03 PM [Scooter-EG] Hold on
8:03 PM [oogie] priscilla927 I am ready
8:03 PM [mercedes99] Scooter-EG you must behave here or me BL will POW
8:03 PM [Scooter-EG] there's a paragraph that I wanted everyone to read
8:03 PM [oogie] Scooter-EG you tell me when you are ready!
8:04 PM [Scooter-EG]
8:04 PM [Scooter-EG] thanks oogie
8:04 PM [priscilla927] All right...everyone sit on hands, please...chat has begun...
8:04 PM [Scooter-EG] is gizmo here
8:04 PM [priscilla927] Scooter-EG No
8:04 PM [Scooter-EG] Shoot
8:04 PM [Scooter-EG] Nevertheless
8:04 PM [Scooter-EG] he had some outstanding questions last week
8:04 PM [Scooter-EG] and one of the peices of information I promised
8:04 PM [oogie] Scooter-EG yes he did
8:05 PM [Scooter-EG] I have
8:05 PM [Scooter-EG] So
8:05 PM [oogie] maybe he will be in
8:05 PM [Scooter-EG] perhaps
8:05 PM [Scooter-EG] but
8:05 PM [Scooter-EG] I do want everyone to read this first
8:05 PM [Scooter-EG] Let me get this one part of this document
[Scooter-EG] 3. Rafidain Bank used to borrow on behalf of the Government. The Exchange rate at the time was US$1=ID 0.33 but is now US$1=ID1180, which led to a large exchange valuation loss. Since Rafidain Bank borrowed on behalf of, and is owned by, the Government, these losses and the offsetting liabilities should be removed from the balance sheet. The calculation is complicated by a number of other issues, see below. It should be noted that preliminary data provided by Rafidain Bank differ slightly from that reported by the CBI.
8:06 PM [Scooter-EG] 4. The team was not able to obtain any official estimate of the magnitude involved and the number given should be viewed as an illustrative approximation. They are based on an internal Rafidain Bank calculation for 2009, which was provided to the team. That calculation showed a reduction in total assets of Rafidai Bank from ID 288 trillion to ID 29 trillion.
8:06 PM [Scooter-EG] Now this comes from the recent World Bank Financial review of Iraq
[Scooter-EG] Page 14
[Scooter-EG] Middle East and North African Region
[Scooter-EG] Republic of iraq
[Scooter-EG] Financial sector review
[Scooter-EG] A Study led by sahar nasr
[Scooter-EG] You can google that if you like
[Scooter-EG] It's a great summary
[Scooter-EG] oh shooooooot
[Scooter-EG] sorrry ddf
[Scooter-EG] how are you
[Scooter-EG] One other item
[Scooter-EG] http://i1217.photobucket ••• SETS.png
[Scooter-EG] That's only one part of my analysis of that report
[Scooter-EG] The reason I bring this tonight
[Scooter-EG] is for two reasons
[Scooter-EG] one
[Scooter-EG] I promised my friend GIZMO
[Scooter-EG] and two
[Scooter-EG] I promised BL this information from my morning conversation with her
[Scooter-EG] She is such a nice lady
[Scooter-EG] She's great !
[Scooter-EG] Now
[Scooter-EG] The main reason I bring this information is that you can see
[Scooter-EG] that the Rafidain Bank
[Scooter-EG] based on these numbers
[Scooter-EG] as well as the Rasheed bank

[Scooter-EG] need to "Devalue" itself first
[Scooter-EG] before the IMF and World Community can re-capitalize those two government banks
[Scooter-EG] it's this reason
[Scooter-EG] that I feel the RV/RD/hybrid solution
[Scooter-EG] is so reliant upon this occurring
[Scooter-EG] Please remember
[Scooter-EG] those two Banks
[Scooter-EG] do 85% of all the transactions in Iraq
[Scooter-EG] maybe a little less
[Scooter-EG] but the bulk of the transactions occur there
[Scooter-EG] So the first thing I'm looking
[Scooter-EG] for is activities with these two banks
[Scooter-EG] once they have the proper asset values listed ont he balance sheets
[Scooter-EG] then and only then will we see movement
[Scooter-EG] now
[Scooter-EG] This may have occurred earlier in the year
[Scooter-EG] but highly unlikely
[Scooter-EG] The reason I say this is simple
[Scooter-EG] this was supposed have gone down three years
[Scooter-EG] ago
[Scooter-EG] and it was supposed to occur on June 30th every single time
[Scooter-EG] so -- doesn't make sense that if the two government banks go through some balance sheet changes
[Scooter-EG] in combination with introduction of lower denoms
[Scooter-EG] a shift could occur
[Scooter-EG] I've always held that to be the case
[Scooter-EG] but one never knows
[Scooter-EG] ok
[Scooter-EG] enough bantering from me
[Scooter-EG] where's the questions
[Scooter-EG] oogie
[oogie] Scooter-EG ty very nice bantering
[Scooter-EG] ty
[oogie] Scooter-EG ok hold on
[Scooter-EG] Do I have to
[Scooter-EG] ok
[Scooter-EG] I'll be good
[Scooter-EG] I don't want Bubbie angry with me
[oogie] first question :}: 1) how much wood can a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood? lol
[Scooter-EG] holy cow - there's a large group here tonight
[Scooter-EG] NONE
[oogie] 2nd question: 2) [BondLady] ask scooter if he knows how to get a mustard stain out of a cashmere sweater?
[Scooter-EG] the beavers would use the wood for a damn
[Scooter-EG] oooooo
[Scooter-EG] Cashmere
[Scooter-EG] tough call
[Scooter-EG] just get a new sweater
[Scooter-EG] plus
[Scooter-EG] I don't wear sweaters in AZ
[oogie] ok final answer?
[Scooter-EG] final answer
[Scooter-EG] The only one I know
[oogie] 3rd question....we are getting to the real ones scooter-eg lightingcslt]What is the best method to quit smoking?????
[Scooter-EG] hmmmmmm
[Scooter-EG] You really don't want my answer on that one
[Scooter-EG] there's another items
[Scooter-EG] that I wanted to follow up on
[oogie] Scooter-EG bear with me I am copying the chat too!
[Scooter-EG] ok
[oogie] [BondLady] ask him what is his perseption on the tarriff taxes and if he feels like they would have to set a new rate and if not why and if so why
[Scooter-EG] while you're doing that I'm going to continue my banter
[Scooter-EG] From that same document
[oogie] Scooter-EG oh okay I'll hold that last one there
[Scooter-EG] While work should commence on a broad range of issues, some key decisions need to be taken immediately, while others may be implemented over the medium term. Key issues to be addressed up front are the role of state banks and the creation of a level playing field for all banks.
[Scooter-EG] This will need to be followed by the early adoption of the proposed permanent Securities Law and steps to turn the insurance Diwan into an effective supervisor. Supporting ongoing efforts will be needed to address financial sector infrastructure, including supervision, credit registry, collateral framework, judicial systems, and accounting and auditing frameworks.
[Scooter-EG] A crucial step, also to signal seriousness of intent, is to clean up the balance sheet of Rafidain Bank and Rasheed Bank, which has been under discussion since 2006. Since more time may be required to clarify some of the disputed items on the balance sheet, the best approach will be to transfer disputed assets and liabilities of the two banks to a newly created asset/liability management company to permit the slimmed down Rafidain Bank and Rasheed Bank to focus on moving forward with their operational restructuring.
[Scooter-EG] The latter process is well formulated in the 2006 memorandum of understanding between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Iraq and should be carried out over the next two years. Once the balance sheet is cleaned up, the capital of the two banks should gradually be brought up to the level prevailing for private banks by June 2013.
[Scooter-EG] Once the reform of Rafidain Bank and Rasheed Bank is well under way, the authorities should consider more generally the role of state banks in the economy, including that of ITB and the four smaller sectoral banks, with a view to eventual liberalization.
[Scooter-EG] Now don't freak out because you see June 2013
[Scooter-EG] There is a reason for this
[Scooter-EG] First
[Scooter-EG] when the world bank developed the DPL
[Scooter-EG] Development Plan for Iraq
[Scooter-EG] they had the banking sector reform broken out into two (2) phases
[Scooter-EG] and the structural changes to the monetary system is considered in the first phase of the plan
[Scooter-EG] Phase two takes them to the next steps with further infrastructure, transactional systems (smart cards), and deeper tools for the bonds, stocks, etc....
[Scooter-EG] Here's some more
[Scooter-EG] As noted above, private banks operate on an uneven playing field. An immediate priority should be to announce the removal of all impediments for private banks
[Scooter-EG] in doing business with the government and state owned enterprises. Given some concerns over the strength of private banks, some elements, such as the size of letters of credits, could be phased in over a period of two years (but preannounced) to permit enhancement of the effectiveness of banking supervision to take hold as well as some consolidation of the banking system following the increase in minimum capital levels.
[Scooter-EG] It is clear that this potential expansion of private banks’ business opportunities entails keen vigilance on the part of the banking supervision department of the CBI to ensure the safety and soundness of the private banks.
[Scooter-EG] Now
[Scooter-EG] that's a mouthful right there
[Scooter-EG] but lets take a look at what they are saying versus our last chat
[Scooter-EG] if you remember from the last two weeks of chats
[Scooter-EG] we talkedf about the "Re-Booting" of those government banks
[Scooter-EG] and two
[Scooter-EG] the bond markets fueling the future governments liquidity
[Scooter-EG] so let's talk about that for a second
[Scooter-EG] Who is the primary bond market in Iraq
[Scooter-EG] well
[Scooter-EG] it's those SOE's that the World Bank is talking about above
[Scooter-EG] the large pension funds
[Scooter-EG] the utility companies
[Scooter-EG] the Insurance companies
[Scooter-EG] These have been state owned enterprises for decades
[Scooter-EG] now -- the question will be which ones out of the 108 SOE's will become privatized and why
[Scooter-EG] the seecond item is the statement regarding the CBI
[Scooter-EG] the CBI will require the safety and soundness of the private banks
[Scooter-EG] Now -- why did i bring that up
[Scooter-EG] Here's why -- give me thirty seconds
[Scooter-EG] http://cbi.iq/documents/ ••• s.EN.pdf
[Scooter-EG] sorry
[Scooter-EG] I had to find the data
[Scooter-EG] now that document
[Scooter-EG] it defines some special rules of engagement for the private banks
[Scooter-EG] and part of those special rules include having proper captial levels
[Scooter-EG] in order to bank and loan money to SME's
[Scooter-EG] small to medium sized businesses
[Scooter-EG] So ok
[Scooter-EG] why is that important to this whole modification
[Scooter-EG] well -- remember what we said two weeks ago about Consumption being a critical component of any changes
[Scooter-EG] Iraq needs to form capitol in that country and do it fast

[Scooter-EG] they intend to build over one million houses
[Scooter-EG] and build the agriculture businesses up
[Scooter-EG] they have infrastructure to continue to build
[Scooter-EG] etc.... etc....
[Scooter-EG] ok -- so how's there existing banks going to do this
[Scooter-EG] well what they put in the ordinance documents pretty much states that Iraqi banks will need to meet certain capitol reserves to play in this endevour
[Scooter-EG] and they will need to increase their capitol
[Scooter-EG] and the only way they do this is if they go out to the BIG money plays like Suisse Bank, Barclays, BofA, Chase, etc...
[Scooter-EG] because they will be able to leverage up to 300% of their assets on all the loans
[Scooter-EG] Imagine BofA
[Scooter-EG] they do approx. 1 trillion a year
[Scooter-EG] I wonder what their assets are
[Scooter-EG] alot
[Scooter-EG] a whole bunch
[Scooter-EG] so what you'll see in the coming months
[Scooter-EG] in my opinion is a much stronger influx of those larger banks partnering with the banks in Iraq
[Scooter-EG] what will occur will be a tornado of loans and business excchange
[Scooter-EG] when this occurs -- the dominos follow -- and the middle class begins (embryonicly) to form
[Scooter-EG] they need a strong Stochastic Cloud of Transactions to occur in order to bring life to the economy again.
[Scooter-EG] WOW -- now that's a rant
[Scooter-EG] ok -- i'm done
[oogie] ok here is the next question: [BondLady] ask him what is his perseption on the tarriff taxes and if he feels like they would have to set a new rate and if not why and if so why
[Scooter-EG] no fair
[Scooter-EG] that's three questions
[Scooter-EG] ok
[oogie] 1 at a time lol
[Scooter-EG] the tariff taxes --- hmmmmmm --- let's think this one through
[Scooter-EG] Will Iraq's tariffs taxes go up or down when this occurs
[Scooter-EG] and
[Scooter-EG] why are they modifying the tax code in the first place
[Scooter-EG] so the answer to that is this

[Scooter-EG] the taxes may increase or decrease plus or minus 10% - 20%
[Scooter-EG] not a big swing there
[Scooter-EG] however
[Scooter-EG] a big however
[Scooter-EG] what they gain by modifying their existing tariff rules is this
[Scooter-EG] they will then be in compliance with WTO rules of engagement
[Scooter-EG] now3
[Scooter-EG] now
[Scooter-EG] what they will probably do to increase their revenues to the government
[Scooter-EG] is drop the tariff's significantly
[Scooter-EG] and watch what happens
[Scooter-EG] the reduction in tariffs will spur intense business and the tax base will broaden significantly
[Scooter-EG] I'm not exactly certain if they can pull that one off
[Scooter-EG] but that's what I would do
[Scooter-EG] here's why
[Scooter-EG] if they want that Stochastic Cloud of money exhange to occur
[Scooter-EG] they need to put the stimulant for that cloud in the hands of the consumers
[Scooter-EG] when the consumers see phenomenal deals, they will start purchasing and the money and loans that spin from that could go on for 22 - 25 more cylces
[Scooter-EG] just my two cents
[Scooter-EG] in my opinion, I don't see that having a primary impact on the rate
[Scooter-EG] it will have what I call
[Scooter-EG] a "PULL" type of reaction to the economy
[Scooter-EG] and rate
[Scooter-EG] whereby the transaction will fuel the economy
[Scooter-EG] and nine months later we would realize the impact on the economy and rate of exchange
[Scooter-EG] next
[oogie] ty
[oogie] ok hold on
[Scooter-EG] No problem
[oogie] [Shredd] Scooter - let's talk tariffs. I understand tariffs will increase between 5-30% depending on the good being imported. That said, in my mind, the only way the iraqi people will not get stuck with the aggregate average of the consumer cost increase is if [Shredd] the dinar would be stronger than the USD by the same amount. Anything less will only keep the USD in the iraqi's hands. What are your thoughts?
[oogie] more tarrifs
[Scooter-EG] hmmmmmm
[Scooter-EG] shredd -- I think that's an interesting question
[Scooter-EG] but
[Scooter-EG] let's take a look at that for a moment
[Scooter-EG] first
[Scooter-EG] in a free open market
[Scooter-EG] the consumer will purchase products that provide them value
[Scooter-EG] if the value doesn't come from the products made and produced in country
[Scooter-EG] then demand will goto imports
[Scooter-EG] now
[Scooter-EG] the the mfg'ers of those goods will modify their pricing based on those factors and the tariffs
[Scooter-EG] now with that said
[Scooter-EG] lets take a look at your statement regarding the dinar would need to be stronger than the us dollar to offset
[Scooter-EG] In my opinion
[Scooter-EG] The reason the dinar will increase in strength is demand for the IQD
[Scooter-EG] and in my opinion -- I believe the dinar will have large demand at the time when those tariffs rules are engaged
[Scooter-EG] sorry
[Scooter-EG] I had to think what i wanted to say there
[Scooter-EG] now
[Scooter-EG] with that said
[Scooter-EG] you are correct
[Scooter-EG] the Iraqis,. In my opinion.
[Scooter-EG] would want the IQD approximately 25% - 35% stronger than the USD
[Scooter-EG] that would be an ideal situation
[Scooter-EG] however
[Scooter-EG] their economy right now
[Scooter-EG] and their existing monetary statistics don't support those numbers
[Scooter-EG] but
[Scooter-EG] I truly believe this when i say this
[Scooter-EG] We don't have all the facts on this bad boy
[Scooter-EG] And we certainly don't have all the missing datapoints
[Scooter-EG] WE DON'T KNOW WHAT "proxy countries" are involved
[Scooter-EG] We don't have a full inventory of those missing assets
Scooter-EG] We don't know how much $$$$ will be able to fall into the reserves
[Scooter-EG] but we do know this
[Scooter-EG] that an economy of only 30 million people
[Scooter-EG] and most of that demographic is the younger age
[Scooter-EG] the working age
[Scooter-EG] that economy with the right stimulants
[Scooter-EG] will have a tremendous opportunity to increase the value and increase it fast !
[Scooter-EG] very fast
[Scooter-EG] in fact
[Scooter-EG] when you take a look at standard modes of growth based on Fibronacci rules
[Scooter-EG] that rate -- if and when they freely float --- which will be several years
[Scooter-EG] could see monsterous swings in strength
[Scooter-EG] just in 6 - 12 month time frames
[Scooter-EG] but please know this
[Scooter-EG] nobody knows what's going to happen
[Scooter-EG] and I mean nobody
[Scooter-EG] no guru
[Scooter-EG] no economist
[Scooter-EG] no person except a handful really have a grasp
[Scooter-EG] just my opinion
[Scooter-EG] that was a great question
[Shredd] thanks Scooter
[Scooter-EG] No
[Scooter-EG] thank you
[oogie] ty scooter-eg here is the next question: [BondLady] when the un put iraq under chapter 7 santions, and sanctioned every thing from sports to currency to international status, when the un takes iraq out of chapter 7 would that automatically reinstate the back into every thing as it was before sanctions international status, iqd exchange rate back to last know entry from cbi in saddams time and sports?
[priscilla927] Point well taken....thank you for your perspective....
[Scooter-EG] Not neccessarily
[Scooter-EG] remember -- the security council and UN
[Scooter-EG] they can pretty much implement this anyway they want
[Scooter-EG] there's no set rules of engagement
[Scooter-EG] some countries have gone down that path
[Scooter-EG] but anything goes when it comes to money and reinstatement
[Scooter-EG] just my opinion
[Scooter-EG] but this can be realized in the many changes they've made over the last 6 years
[Scooter-EG] priscilla927 thank you
[Scooter-EG] much appreciated
[Scooter-EG] now
[Scooter-EG] reinstatement of the old rate
[Scooter-EG] there's something that needs to be understood there
[Scooter-EG] the only thing that is required in that situation
[Scooter-EG] is that the debt to commercial companies and other states
[Scooter-EG] needs to be paid back at that same rate
[Scooter-EG] so what does that mean /
[Scooter-EG] simple
[Scooter-EG] you take the value of the debt and put into USD
[Scooter-EG] or EURO
Scooter-EG] and they pay it back in whatever rate that exist
[Scooter-EG] We've seen several items regarding this one
[Scooter-EG] Egypt
[Scooter-EG] Jordan
[Scooter-EG] the UK
[Scooter-EG] Syria
[Scooter-EG] iraq has had to pay back those debts at the prevailing rate
[Scooter-EG] so whatever that rate was back then in USD
[Scooter-EG] move it today and calculate it out with the interest on top of that
[Scooter-EG] Just my two sense
[Scooter-EG] ok
[Scooter-EG] one more question
[oogie] next question: [BondLady] what is your thoughts per the the WTO and iraqs fulll membership into the wto, does he believe they will go ahead an do what needs to be done to be able to be a full member or will they screw it off like every thing else and just go down to moes tavern an slugg it out with each other
[priscilla927] You get extra points if you know the Moes Tavern reference.....
[Scooter-EG] MOES looks good
[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm
[Scooter-EG] here's the thing with this question
[oogie] bondlady has a way with words
[Scooter-EG]
[Scooter-EG] Yes she does!
[Scooter-EG] Too funny
[Scooter-EG] ok
[Scooter-EG] where to start with this one
[Scooter-EG] the reason I'm hessitant is this
[Scooter-EG] there's been an internal Iraqi group that's been resisting the move into the WTO
[Scooter-EG] and i never could understand why this was
[Scooter-EG] until just recently
[Scooter-EG] If you remember those 108 SOE's
[Scooter-EG] many of those companies would never survive in the open market
[Scooter-EG] and as a result, those companies and those employees would be out of work
[Scooter-EG] great more unemployment in Iraq
[Scooter-EG] however,
[Scooter-EG] if you recall
[Scooter-EG] those 108 SOE's will be required in order to fund the liquidity of the government through the purchase of bonds
[Scooter-EG] Now
[Scooter-EG] with that said
[Scooter-EG] if they move methodically with those SOE's to privatize them
[Scooter-EG] yet still maintain the fidelity of the agreement witht he WTO
[Scooter-EG] then they could have the best of both worlds
[Scooter-EG] I think that's the biggest reason
[Scooter-EG] we haven't seen Iraq's assencion into the WTO
[Scooter-EG] the structural changes to tariffs and stamps
[Scooter-EG] that part is easy

[Scooter-EG] but the get the right balance between the SOE's, WTO, and the government of Iraq
[Scooter-EG] that's the tricky part
[Scooter-EG] just my opinion
[Scooter-EG] Moe's tavern still looks good
[Scooter-EG] ok
[Scooter-EG] unfortunately -- I really need to jettison
[oogie] ty Scooter-EG
[player46] Scooter-EG .. TYVM.. appreciate your time.
[Scooter-EG] but I wanted to say thank you to my good friend
[Scooter-EG] oogie and Bubbie
[oogie] we really apreciate the chat
[Crash] Scooter-EG ty
[Scooter-EG] and player46
[luckyintx] tyvm scooter that was amazing!
[d6j8] thank you
[Scooter-EG] vested
[priscilla927] Scooter-EG Great job...thank you.
[Scooter-EG] You are welcome
[Scooter-EG] I hope this helped
[Scooter-EG] and was worthwhile
[DogzNova] vested what.. U didnt get banned again did U
[oogie] Scooter-EG absolutely!
[vested] yep-thanks Scooter
[player46] Yes it was..
[priscilla927] Scooter-EG Of course it helped. goof ball...
[Scooter-EG] wow -- big group here tonight
[smithmp] thx Scooter-EG
[d6j8] very smart man
[therealbubbie] Scooter-EG Scooter-EG Scooter-EG Scooter-EG Scooter-EG Scooter-EG
[Scooter-EG] didn't realize that
[oogie] Scooter-EG gizmo just came in
[Cutter1] Scooter-EG ty
[priscilla927] Hey, Scooter-EG ~ gues who's here??
[Scooter-EG] smithmp You are very welcome !
[rsp] I've missed your chats Scooter...great to hear from you again.
[DogzNova] Scooter Rules
[Scooter-EG] cutter1 My pleasure
Scooter-EG] I've missed giving them
[tlm724] Scooter-EG thank you, great job
[Scooter-EG] but i really needed the break
[Scooter-EG] DogzNova -- so do you !
[rsp] thank you for your sharing of important information in this investment.
[Scooter-EG] tlm724 TY sir
[Gizmo1] Scooter-EG - my man!! you be in fine form -- sorry I'm late
[Scooter-EG] GIZZZZZZ
[Scooter-EG] hey buddy
[Scooter-EG] I don't know when you got here
[therealbubbie] hope somebody copied it !!
[priscilla927] Gizmo1 You will be punished tomorrow...
[Scooter-EG] but i found that research
[Scooter-EG] ciao for now!
=====================================

ENJOY YOUR EVENING,


SCOOT

RE-RUN: "THE TRIFECTA THEORY" BY SCOOTER

For those interested, here's the "Table of Contents" for "The Trifecta Theory".  There has been references to this several times in the past few days so I thought I would re-publish the Table of Contents.


Enjoy,


Scooter

E

SCOOTER CHAT AT BONDLADY'S CORNER 5-8-2012

Hi Folks,


Here's a recent chat we had at BondLady's Corner - I hope you enjoy.

Scooter
--------------------------------------



[Scooter-EG] sooooooo ---- let's get this party started

[Scooter-EG] perfect

[Scooter-EG] I won't have all the answers

[helend] Scooter-EG ok here comes number 1

[Scooter-EG] but I'll do my best

[Scooter-EG] ok

[helend] [oogie] for scooter: scooter without using a calculator, what is the square root of 2,000,937,926,856 and you have 10 seconds

[Scooter-EG] trick question

[helend] Scooter-EG

[Scooter-EG] my calculator can't go that high

[Scooter-EG] sorry

[helend] Scooter-EG okay, then on to # 2

[helend] [BondLady] what is einstiens theory of relativity scooter and explain in great detail why and how he came to his conclusions...ty


[helend] Scooter-EG are you laughing?

[Scooter-EG] The theory of relativity, or simply relativity, encompasses two theories of Albert Einstein: special relativity and general relativity.[1] The basic overall concept is that both time and space are relative, not fixed. However, the word relativity is sometimes used in reference to Galilean
[gaffi] E=Mc squared

[DogzNova] heack.. hes prol answering it

[helend] DogzNova he was!

[Scooter-EG] ohhhhhhhh yea


[Scooter-EG] who's da man now!

[helend] Scooter-EG now bondlady will be laughing

[player46] You!!!


[helend] Scooter-EG okay, we get to the really good stuff now

[helend] [lightingcslt] scooter what is the inflation rate in youropinion right now

[luckyintx] very good!

[Scooter-EG] WOW !!

[Scooter-EG] that is a very good question

[Scooter-EG] who was that

[Scooter-EG] here's why

[helend] Scooter-EG light


[Scooter-EG] ok -- this one will take some time

[Scooter-EG] just be patient

[Scooter-EG] one

[Scooter-EG] Iraq, please remember is a start-up country

[Scooter-EG] with that said

[Scooter-EG] they will be in high growth mode for the next decade

[Scooter-EG] and when I say start up mode

[Scooter-EG] I mean they were literally re-born

[Scooter-EG] now

[Scooter-EG] with high growth

[Scooter-EG] you will inevitably have higher inflation

[Scooter-EG] the imf

[Scooter-EG] says they could hit 11% - 12% growth in their GDP

[Scooter-EG] ok -- that's super cool

[Scooter-EG] but what does that mean to inflation

[Scooter-EG] and

[Scooter-EG] more importantly

[Scooter-EG] what kind of inflation

Scooter-EG] there's headline inflation

[Scooter-EG] and there's core inflation

[Scooter-EG] sorry

[Scooter-EG] had to turn off the phone

[Scooter-EG] now when a country of 30 million people are growing at that pace

[Scooter-EG] having inflation range from 6 - 8% in somewhat common

[Scooter-EG] the 8% is a bit high

[Scooter-EG] but 6 -7 percent

[Scooter-EG] is somewhat normal

[Scooter-EG] now if you goto the cbi website

[Scooter-EG] 6.21% is listed

[Scooter-EG] and Year over year is just over 8%

[Scooter-EG] now --- with that said

[Scooter-EG] 6.21% isn't bad inflation


[Scooter-EG] you can find that on the home page of the site www.cbi.iq
[Scooter-EG] bottom right corner

[Scooter-EG] but

[Scooter-EG] what you really want to look at are the financial indicators

[Scooter-EG] on this spreadsheet to get a clearer picture

[Scooter-EG] here's the link

[Scooter-EG] http://www.cbi.iq/docume ··· cial.xls

[Scooter-EG] That spreadsheet gets published every week

[Scooter-EG] or every two weeks

[Scooter-EG] and at the top of that spread sheet you'll find

[Scooter-EG] the consumer price index

[Scooter-EG] set for 1993

Scooter-EG] you'll also want to take a look at the money supply and sources

[Scooter-EG] which is located

[Scooter-EG] on cell B47

[Scooter-EG] no -- it's not bingo

[Scooter-EG] sorry

[Scooter-EG] litlle loopey today

[helend] Scooter-EG

[Scooter-EG] so -- when you ask the question

[Scooter-EG] what's their inflation rate really --- I always say it's

[Scooter-EG] right in between 6% - 7%

[Scooter-EG] and that's about where they should be right now

[Scooter-EG] there's only a handful of countries

[Scooter-EG] around the globe growing at that rate

[Scooter-EG] and they are bound to have increases in prices

[Scooter-EG] as they diversify their economy

[Scooter-EG] what they can't have happen

[Scooter-EG] is the same thing that happend in 2006 - 2007

[Scooter-EG] it became a disaster

[Scooter-EG] they never accounted for the USD in country

[Scooter-EG] terrorist were blowing up fuel supplies

[Scooter-EG] dollarization occurred everywhere

[Scooter-EG] at one point -- inflation (overall) hit close to 62%

[Scooter-EG] That's when the CBI bumped interest rate all the way up to over 20%

[helend] wow

[Scooter-EG] they had no choice to tighten the supply of money

[Scooter-EG] yea

[Scooter-EG] it was truly absurd

[Scooter-EG] they were very luck

[Scooter-EG] lucky things didn't completely go downhill

[Scooter-EG] great recovery by the world too

[Scooter-EG] long question

[Scooter-EG] I hope I answered

[Scooter-EG] it

[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] good answer

[helend] [Gizmo1] BondLady -- my question!! Scooter -- what the h**l is Shabs waiting for -

[Scooter-EG] hahahahaha

[Scooter-EG] Hi Giz

[Scooter-EG] nice seeing you again my friend

Scooter-EG] that is a very good question --- and here's why

[Gizmo1] Scooter-EG - back at ya!!

[Scooter-EG] thanks

[Scooter-EG] see -- hmmm -- how do I answer this one

[Scooter-EG] ok

[Scooter-EG] the original MOU

[Scooter-EG] memo of understanding from 2006

[Scooter-EG] had an arrangement with a list of items that needed to be completed

[Scooter-EG] The list of items were all thrown into a bucket

[Scooter-EG] this bucket originated from the US Congress

[Scooter-EG] the IMF

[Scooter-EG] the World Bank

[Scooter-EG] now

[Scooter-EG] this list --- I'll provide the link in just a second

[Scooter-EG] this list was assimilated into now what is called or part of the Paris
Club debt relief

[Scooter-EG] whereby the credit holding -- G20 type countries

[Scooter-EG] would relieve 80% of Iraq'

[Scooter-EG] Iraq's debt

[Scooter-EG] they tried to get the Arab countries to go along with the accord

[Scooter-EG] but

[Scooter-EG] to no avail

[Scooter-EG] now

[Scooter-EG] what's taking shab's so long

Scooter-EG] within that list there's several items that he simply doesn't have control over

[Scooter-EG] one being

[Scooter-EG] the restructuring of those state owned banks

[Scooter-EG] It is my assertion

[Scooter-EG] right now

[Scooter-EG] that nothing

[Scooter-EG] and I mean nothing will happen there

[Scooter-EG] until those two banks -- are devalued according to the IMF's independent auditors value

[Scooter-EG] For years

Scooter-EG] the Iraqi's have resisted

[Scooter-EG] largely because of the intense corruption

[Scooter-EG] they finally found the two missingm suspence accounts

[Scooter-EG] and now the auditors have valued those banks accordingly

[Scooter-EG] however

[Scooter-EG] they will take an immediate hit in value

[Scooter-EG] please remember

[Scooter-EG] these banks serve close to 85% of all transactions in that country

[Scooter-EG] the value they show on the Balance Sheets for Rafadain is close to 371 Trillion IQD

[Scooter-EG] and based on the old value

[Scooter-EG] the REAL value is close to 40 Trillion

[Scooter-EG] or 40 Billion USD

[Scooter-EG] now

[Scooter-EG] with that said

[Scooter-EG] the IMF also has promised that once those balance sheets

[Scooter-EG] are corrected

[Scooter-EG] they would re-capitalize those banks to the appropriate level

[Scooter-EG] ok

[Scooter-EG] there's first reason

[Scooter-EG] the second reason

[Scooter-EG] I think there's an internal struggle

[Scooter-EG] between the big banks or bankers funding the CBI and the government of Iraq

[Scooter-EG] remember -- they have access to funds they haven't been able to access before

[Scooter-EG] secondly

[Scooter-EG] in all major increases in history

[Scooter-EG] only a very few people benefited

[Scooter-EG] in this case

[Scooter-EG] in my opinion of course

[Scooter-EG] just a gut feeling

[Scooter-EG] the internet changed that theory

[Scooter-EG] and they didn't account for the number of individual investors

[Scooter-EG] just a theory

[Scooter-EG] but the the two government banks is the main reason in my opinion GIZ

[Scooter-EG] GIZMO

[Scooter-EG] I'll provide the link to the list at the end

[Scooter-EG] I'll need to search for that one -- it will only take a second

[Scooter-EG] next

[Scooter-EG] DogzNova

[Scooter-EG] it's ok

[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] [Gizmo1] - Scooter, you stated that the CBI banks need to adjust their asset value before an ri/rv can occur - have you seen documentation stating same??

[Scooter-EG] Yes

[Scooter-EG] IMF documents as well as the independent auditors

[Scooter-EG] i think it was Ernst and Young

[Scooter-EG] but it might be this last one from that british firm

[Scooter-EG] it was listed in the footnotes

[Scooter-EG] I am searching that one right now

[Scooter-EG] i can tell you that it was shown when i published The Trifecta Theory

[Scooter-EG] In essence, it details the TRUE value of those banks

[Scooter-EG] what caught me completely off guard is that they used the words Re-Value

[Scooter-EG] big no no in the banking

[Scooter-EG] community

[Scooter-EG] now did they state the IQD would Re-Value

[Scooter-EG] no

[Scooter-EG] they never do

[Scooter-EG] the IMF docs will never use those words

[Scooter-EG] What they use in its place are words like

[Scooter-EG] Sustainabilty

[Scooter-EG] CAPACITY

[Scooter-EG] Structural changes

[Scooter-EG] IN FACT, the "Structural Changes" is probably the best word that describes that one

[Scooter-EG] there are some CR's

[Scooter-EG] Country Reports

[Scooter-EG] that show the increases in REAL vs. Nominal Value

[Scooter-EG] Those are kind of interesting to dissect

[Scooter-EG] See whenever i view these docs

[Scooter-EG] I don't take just one document

[Scooter-EG] I cross verify with two to three other sources

[Scooter-EG] one document that shows one item

[Scooter-EG] means there's a 50% chance of it being real

[Scooter-EG] two docuements showing the same pattern

[Scooter-EG] elevates the statement to around 75%

[Scooter-EG] three docs from three different sources

[Scooter-EG] 96% chance

[Scooter-EG] the reason i say that is that I trust no one when it comes to currencies

[Scooter-EG] I hope that answered your question GIZMO

[Scooter-EG] oh yea

[Scooter-EG] nice to see you !!!

[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] [player46] BondLady .. for Scooter.. In your opinion, what was lacking in the budget to address real economy issues.. TY

[Scooter-EG] WOW!

[priscilla927] tell me we ain't smart....

[helend] Scooter-EG

[Scooter-EG] ok -- I'm going to answer this one

[Scooter-EG] priscilla927 oh

[Scooter-EG] you're smart!

[Scooter-EG] no doubt about it

[Scooter-EG] I can tell by just loooking at ya

[Scooter-EG] ok

[Scooter-EG] so to the question

[Scooter-EG] the budget

[Scooter-EG] Here's my problem with Iraq's budget

[Scooter-EG] at least for the last five years

[Scooter-EG] When they first started really to control spending and investing

[Scooter-EG] they didn't do two things

[Scooter-EG] one

[Scooter-EG] they didn't invest in the correct way

[Scooter-EG] see

[Scooter-EG] they needed capitol formatioln to occur

[Scooter-EG] and they needed that to occur immediately

[Scooter-EG] and they didn't do it

[Scooter-EG] two

[Scooter-EG] they needed to diversify the economy

[Scooter-EG] they invested all their money into oil

[Scooter-EG] here's an example

[Scooter-EG] Take Jordan

[Scooter-EG] they Capitol to GDP ratio is close to 200%

[Scooter-EG] Iraq

[Scooter-EG] 3.5%

[Scooter-EG] They aren't forming capitol in all the segments of the market

[Scooter-EG] In my opinion

[Scooter-EG] just my opinion

[Scooter-EG] they needed to invest in Agriculture and mfg.

[Scooter-EG] the oil and natural gas money would have come naturally

[Scooter-EG] from outside investors

[Scooter-EG] Do you realize that Agriculture

[Scooter-EG] was once a bigger contributor to Iraq than Oil

[Scooter-EG] it was close to 40% of their GDP

[Scooter-EG] while oil was at 35%

[Scooter-EG] that's huges

[Scooter-EG] huge

[Scooter-EG] so [Scooter-EG] in my opinion -- they're late to the game when investing properly into forming capitol in that country

[Scooter-EG] The third one

[Scooter-EG] probably the most important one

[Scooter-EG] in the long term

[Scooter-EG] is educating that great young demographic

[Scooter-EG] the citizens

[Scooter-EG] Whose going to invest in a country solely based

[Scooter-EG] on their natural resources

[Scooter-EG] sure

[Scooter-EG] they'll get a short term gain

[Scooter-EG] but in the long run

[Scooter-EG] it will bite them right in the XXXX

[Scooter-EG] next

[Scooter-EG] just my opinion

helend] [grashopa] ........hey scooter....ya got a motor in that thing.....or just flintstone feet??..

[Scooter-EG] isn't that a song

[priscilla927] Does anybody know?

[Scooter-EG] flintstone feet

[helend] good enough

[helend] here comes the next one

[Scooter-EG] kk

[helend] [player46] . for Scooter.. Do you expect to see tariffs begin on July 1st, and if so, what affect will it have on their economy.. TY

[Scooter-EG] hmmmm

[Scooter-EG] Let me turn that one around

[Scooter-EG] Are they deploying and using tarriffs right now

[Scooter-EG] the answer is yes

[Scooter-EG] on certain products

[Scooter-EG] now the one that you're talking about has to do with laws that standardizes

[Scooter-EG] the iraqi system to be compatible with the rest of the world

[Scooter-EG] so the answer is I hope they get that done

[Scooter-EG] It will only lead to more foreign investment and better living for the iraqi people

[Scooter-EG] a happy people

[Scooter-EG] are people that like to spend

[Scooter-EG] when they spend

[Scooter-EG] consumption goes up

[Scooter-EG] when consumption goes up

[Scooter-EG] the living standards move forward

[Scooter-EG] and a middle class is formed

[Scooter-EG] and the value of the Dinar goes upward

[Scooter-EG] not downward

[Scooter-EG] long winded answer I know

[Scooter-EG] but

[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] Gemini5: Goodevening Scooter, Thank you for spending your evening with us:) I have heard you talk about a "hybrid" RV...Can you please explain the following....The rate is 1:1 which we believe to be 86 cents....however ....we will not actually be receiving .86 for each dinar....I have heard you and Enoch explain it....but I could not turn around and explain a "hybrid" to everyone else....Thank You:)

[Scooter-EG] Let's get this one answered then, hybrid RV

[Scooter-EG] What is it

[Scooter-EG] before answering there's different forms of different terms that everybody uses

[Scooter-EG] now with that said --- let's dissect this one

[Scooter-EG] Iraq -- they are a country of 30 million people with vast natural resource wealth

[Scooter-EG] very vast!!

[Scooter-EG] now -- in most cases -- on the FOREX market

[Scooter-EG] countries and their central banks will REVALUE their currencies

[Scooter-EG] Heck, this last 24 months

[Scooter-EG] The eastern asian countries have revalued close to 18 countries

[Scooter-EG] but they aren't the same revalue as this community is thinking about

[Scooter-EG] in this case

[Scooter-EG] they are talking about a complete re-structuring of the monetary system to accomodate itself for the world community and improve the lifestyle of the Iraqi people

[Scooter-EG] now - with that restructuring comes things like increases in value -- RD's -- etc...

[Scooter-EG] in Iraq's case -- they are doing everything as quickly as possible

[Scooter-EG] but they will not just do a revalue

[Scooter-EG] or just a redenomination

[Scooter-EG] they will need both

[Scooter-EG] and both task will be performed on a timeline that's conducive and beneficial to the iraqi people

[Scooter-EG] We know they've established a new CPI

[Scooter-EG] We know the Ministry of Planning documents show increases in value at multiple spots

[Scooter-EG] We know from the originating documents from 2002

[Scooter-EG] they have always had a plan to remove the zeros

[Scooter-EG] so what does that mean

a hybrid of both tool sets to accommodate what's best for the people

[Scooter-EG] when and how this occurs

[Scooter-EG] nobody knows

[Scooter-EG] but one thing is for certain

[Scooter-EG] they need to increase and improve the buying power of the people of iraq

[Scooter-EG] without that

[Scooter-EG] they can never form a middle class and never SUSTAIN

[Scooter-EG] foreign investment in that country

[Scooter-EG] the biggest reason

[Scooter-EG] the biggest reason

[Scooter-EG] they won't be able to consume products internally in the country

[Scooter-EG] See

[Scooter-EG] the strength of a currency consist of several intangibles

[Scooter-EG] one being the Stochastic strength

[Scooter-EG] if you've ever seen a volcano explode

[Scooter-EG] you would see

[Scooter-EG] a Stochastic Cloud

[Scooter-EG] one of the most ferocious things to occur

[Scooter-EG] stronger than anything

[Scooter-EG] they need to do the same thing with the currency

[Scooter-EG] look that word up on Google and refer to currency

[Scooter-EG] Stochastic Strength of any stock, bond, or currency

[Scooter-EG] it's critical to maintaining or Sustaining the value

[Scooter-EG] just my personal take

[Scooter-EG] what was teh question again

[Scooter-EG] sorry -- i'm ranting again

[helend] crazy dude!

[priscilla927] so not ranting....

[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] [Mikey] Scooter: Do you think that before the RV the dinar will become scarce in the streets and markets? Can the CBI use the auctions to bring dinar into the bank and flood the markets with USD?

Scooter-EG] priscilla927 thank you priscilla927

[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm ---

[Scooter-EG] not sure

[Scooter-EG] and here's why

[Scooter-EG] there's several theories on this one

[Scooter-EG] see -- the iraqi's need to increase demand for the IQD

[Scooter-EG] and they'll need to do that quickly

[Scooter-EG] i do think the auctions will be part of the trigger that starts this process

[Scooter-EG] but

[Scooter-EG] here's the gotcha spot

[Scooter-EG] the neighborhood

[Scooter-EG] right now

[Scooter-EG] here's the gotcha spot

[Scooter-EG] the neighborhood

[Scooter-EG] right now

[Scooter-EG] demand for the USD is hot

[Scooter-EG] very HOT

[Scooter-EG] the petro dollar and the price of oil

[Scooter-EG] are high and will continue to be high

[Scooter-EG] in some countries like Argentina, Pakistan, Iran, syria

[Scooter-EG] they can't get enough USD in the market fast enough to buy basic needs

[Scooter-EG] remember -- the USD is 62 % of all the worlds currencies

[Scooter-EG] so their in a bit of a pickle

[Scooter-EG] and that's the reason I'm hessitant to answer that question

[Scooter-EG] I think their will be a tightning

[Scooter-EG] Yes

[Scooter-EG] how much

[Scooter-EG] not certain.

[Scooter-EG] great question

[helend] thanks scooter

[Scooter-EG] and I'm working that one through my pea

[Scooter-EG] brain

[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] [Gizmo1]... Scooter: current auctions are close to the same value as last year, and inflation is still on the rise. Will Shabs continue to use reserves to keep inflation in check - short & long terrm -- and how can they continue to afford it???

[Scooter-EG] hmmmm

[Scooter-EG] Is inflation really out of control right now

[Scooter-EG] that's the first question

[Scooter-EG] when the country is growing at 11% - 12%

[Scooter-EG] Honestly

[Scooter-EG] I'm in the camp that puts the inflation variable in the second tier

[Scooter-EG] I'm probably one of the few that is saying that

[Scooter-EG] but oh well

[Scooter-EG] I think if inflation becomes over 8%

[Scooter-EG] then the flags start to raise

[Scooter-EG] because the ratios don't jive properly for the economy

[Scooter-EG] first -- for a country to grow that fast

[Scooter-EG] WOW

[Scooter-EG] it's incredible

[Scooter-EG] but they have the tool set via the auctions to close that gap and control that inflation

[Scooter-EG] also

[Scooter-EG] please remember -- those auctions in many cases are just moving funds from one balance sheet to another

[Scooter-EG] Second

[Scooter-EG] remember how I said

[Scooter-EG] those two government banks need to be re-booted

[Scooter-EG] well

[Scooter-EG] once that occurs

[Scooter-EG] the next step is privatizing those 108 SOE's

[Scooter-EG] State Owned Enterprises

[Scooter-EG] Those will be the large insurance and utility companies

[Scooter-EG] those firms will then become the liquidity engine for the government via the primary bond market

[Scooter-EG] those two items

[Scooter-EG] in my opinion

[Scooter-EG] are the MOST critical components of this venture

[Scooter-EG] I think I provided a link last week to the list that was required

[Scooter-EG] that list as well as the CR's -- country reports from the IMF

[Scooter-EG] outline this very boldly

[Scooter-EG] I hope that answers that question -- ok -- I have time for one more question

[Scooter-EG] who gets it

[Scooter-EG] waiting for it

helend] [tlm724] hey helen,just wondering if one of the questions asks about shabbis vow article from last nite [tlm724] if he read it and what is his opinion

[helend] and I will get the link to the article

[Scooter-EG] ok

[Scooter-EG] I haven't read it

[helend] http://www.bondladyscorn ··· 12-05-07

[Scooter-EG] Try not to read

[Scooter-EG] let me read it -- one minute – brb

[Scooter-EG] so the question

[Scooter-EG] my opinion

[Scooter-EG] he indicated that he was intending to increase the value

[Scooter-EG] but through strong mechanism

[Scooter-EG] those mechanism's

[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm

[Scooter-EG] i wonder what that means

[Scooter-EG] perhaps a strong Bond market

[Scooter-EG] that would be number one in my books

[Scooter-EG] second

[Scooter-EG] or really first

[Scooter-EG] get your

[Scooter-EG] banks balance sheets in order

[Scooter-EG] so

[Scooter-EG] I know those are high on the priority list -- but what the status of those projects at this exact time

[Scooter-EG] are unknown

[Scooter-EG] I think his statement is consistent with the intent of all agencies

[Scooter-EG] it was very broad based and could be interepreted many ways

[Scooter-EG] that's all I have on that one

[Scooter-EG] with that

[Scooter-EG] I need to depart

[helend] Thank you so much Scooter

[player46] Scooter-EG .. TY for your time and wisdom..we really appreciate it..

[Scooter-EG] You are soooo welcome

[helend] As usual you are AWESOME!

[luckyintx] tyvm scooter, I enjoyed the learning experience!

[Scooter-EG] thank you for having me

[Scooter-EG] Have a great evening all

[Scooter-EG] Good night

SCOOTER CHAT AT BOND LADY'S CORNER

Hi folks,


I hope all is well.  Here's a question and answer session at Bond Lady's Corner.  I had a lot of fun and people there are great!


Have a great evening,


Scooter


________________________________________________________________________________
Scooters Q & A May 1st, 2012 about 7 pm Tue

[Scooter-EG] How is everybody
[Scooter-EG] I hope everyone is doing well and had a good day
[helend] Scooter-EG hey there scooter!
[Mikey] they are abuz over the latest article
[Scooter-EG] helend helend helend -- Great work with the post !
[Scooter-EG] Well done !
[helend] Scooter will do a miny chat for us with q & a
[helend] can we get everyone to sit on their hands please
[helend] and send me your questions and I will give them to scooter, it will make things very smooth for him and all of us
[helend] Okay, send me your questions and please sit on hands in room, lets give our distinguished guest the floor now

[Scooter-EG] There is one thing that I wanted to say
[Scooter-EG] First
[Scooter-EG] i wanted to extend my appreciation to BL and the crew here
[helend] thanks scooter, we are thrilled to have you
[Scooter-EG] There's a lot of friends from the past
[Scooter-EG] Thank you -- I'm honored to be here
[helend] Scooter-EG we are honored sir
[Scooter-EG] many of these folks i've known for too many years
[Scooter-EG] The team here is spirited and I like that
[Scooter-EG] they seek the truth
[Scooter-EG] and I like that a whole lot better
[Scooter-EG] but as for tonight
[helend] we like it too, very grounded room
[Scooter-EG] Exactly !
[helend] and we have the best members, very nice and lovely ppl here
[Scooter-EG] as for tonight -- I was thinking we would open with Questions -- and i'll see if I can help or answer your questions
[helend] Scooter-EG I got em lining up for ya
[helend] when you are ready let me know
[Scooter-EG] I might not have all the answers but i'll do my best
[Scooter-EG] helend
[helend] Scooter-EG yes sir?
[Scooter-EG] fire the first question -- let's do this
[helend] Scooter-EG awesome, okay men start your engines
[helend] first question

[helend] [luckyintx] does iraq have to have international tradeable currency for any banking transactions?

[Scooter-EG] hmmmm -- how's the best way to answer this one
[Scooter-EG] ok -
[Scooter-EG] leet me ask you a question right now
[Scooter-EG] Are they making international trades right now with their currency
[Scooter-EG] The answer is yes
[Scooter-EG] yes they are
[Scooter-EG] In fact they have been making large purchases
[Scooter-EG] they've been making large durable product purchases for quite some time
[Scooter-EG] in some cases they've been using the derivative market to insure the price point at a certain exchange rate
[Scooter-EG] for example
[Scooter-EG] those 737 Boeing Jets
[Scooter-EG] those are being acquired threw a spot price
[Scooter-EG] now as for banking transactions right now with the international community -- yes
[Scooter-EG] they have been trading --- lightly however
[Scooter-EG] the biggest problem with the current system has been the infrastructure of the Iraqi banks
[Scooter-EG] However
[Scooter-EG] it's a big however
[Scooter-EG] the systems they are deploying are going to be and are remarkable
[Scooter-EG] some of the best technology in the world
[Scooter-EG] here's another way of looking at it
[Scooter-EG] for quite some time, Large banks were exchanging IQD
[Scooter-EG] they have been selling
[Scooter-EG] and some buying
[Scooter-EG] so the question is a good one
[Scooter-EG] largely because of the Rules of Engagement with Chpt 7
[Scooter-EG] I hope that helped luckyintx
[Scooter-EG] In essence -- they have been trading internationally for sometime
[Scooter-EG] It's just not officially being traded throughout the world
[Scooter-EG] some banks recognize the currency -- some do not
[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] [tlm724] scooter, have your views changed since your last chat with us ? thank you

[Scooter-EG] Nope
[Scooter-EG] They are the same -- I think
[Scooter-EG] Iraq had a lot to accomplish
[Scooter-EG] per the list of items set forth by the World Bank and IMF before the restructuring could occur
[Scooter-EG] They've missed the last three years of deadlines
[Scooter-EG] but they're getting there slowly
[Scooter-EG] You have to remember --- my initial thought this was going to a 2013 play when I purchased in 2005
[Scooter-EG] but when the world was going upside down financially
[Scooter-EG] and the fact of the massive debacle inside of Iraq from 2006 - 2008
[Scooter-EG] I went and changed my view of the timing
[Scooter-EG] and bumped up the timeline
[Scooter-EG] see -- truth be known
[Scooter-EG] the IMF indicated the Structural changes were to occur during the Parliamentary elections
[Scooter-EG] but They couldn't move that forward because of the balance sheets at the two largest state owned banks
[Scooter-EG] I know -- unbeleivable
[Scooter-EG] You can find that in the Country Report from 2010
[Scooter-EG] i think it was march 2010 publish date from the IMF
[Scooter-EG] Now --- after reviewing the world bank requirements recently published
[Scooter-EG] that list was very long
[Scooter-EG] they probably have a lot of those items completed -- but one never knows
[Scooter-EG] here -- let me get you a link
[helend] Thanks Scooter
[Scooter-EG] while my other window is searching
[Scooter-EG] here we go
[Scooter-EG] this details a list of items they needed to get accomplished by December 31
[Scooter-EG] http://emerginggeos.blogspot.com/2011/10/scooter-post-world-bank-financial.html
[Scooter-EG] when you get there
[Scooter-EG] simply click on the image
[Scooter-EG] and it will blow up to a full size image for reading
[Scooter-EG] The ultimate question is how much have they accomplished
[Scooter-EG] My standing has always been
[Scooter-EG] they aren't going to change the structure or value of anything
[Scooter-EG] until the balance sheets of the two banks are correctly valued
[Scooter-EG] it has become a major issue
[Scooter-EG] for two reasons really
[Scooter-EG] one
[Scooter-EG] corruption
[Scooter-EG] those two banks were
[Scooter-EG] hmmmm what's a good word
[Scooter-EG] well lets just say they didn't exactlyl conform to international standards
[Scooter-EG] two
[Scooter-EG] they are way overvalued
[Scooter-EG] the Rafaidain bank alone
[Scooter-EG] is still show assets from the pre-Saddam values
[Scooter-EG] so for example -- from memory -- I think they show 377 Trillion IQD
[Scooter-EG] in Assets
[Scooter-EG] however, when you look at the Ernst and Young Audits
[Scooter-EG] the true value is really closer to 40 Trillion in IQD
[Scooter-EG] and the reason is they haven't changed the balance sheets
[Scooter-EG] sorry -- a little long winded
[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] player46] Scooter.. have any investment or consumer laws been passed? TY

[helend] Thanks Scooter
[Scooter-EG] Oh yea
[Scooter-EG] absolutely!
[Scooter-EG] there's been some good ones lately too
[Scooter-EG] They've been going back to the older laws and modifying them to include Privatization
[Scooter-EG] it's actually remarkable how many they have passed over the past year
[Scooter-EG] I usually goto this site for the law library http://translate.google.com/translate?langpair=auto|en&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1&u=http://www.iraq-lg-law.org/en%3Fpage%3D1
[Scooter-EG] Law of Governorates not organized in a region No. 21 of 2008 amended
[Scooter-EG] Law of the Ministry of Tourism & Antiquities number (13) for the year 2012
[Scooter-EG] Fund Act No. recovery of Iraq's money (9) for the year 2012
[Scooter-EG] That last one is interesting
[Scooter-EG] they are talking about recovering their lost assets
[Scooter-EG] and the other funds from around the world
[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] DDF] So if Iraq was to have an hybrid what does that mean for us

[Scooter-EG] HYBRID
[SMOOTH] TOYTOA
[Scooter-EG] A HYBRID is a couple of things
[Scooter-EG] not a Toyota
[Scooter-EG] in Iraq's case -- people have been talking about RD vs RV
[helend] Scooter-EG thank God!
[Scooter-EG] now in Iraq's case
[Scooter-EG] they appear to going down the traditional road of both actions
[Scooter-EG] the RD and the RV
[Scooter-EG] see in 2009 and 2010
[Scooter-EG] Iraq came out with a new CPI
[Scooter-EG] consumer price index
[Scooter-EG] well they haven't been able to really deploy it because of the several reasons
[Scooter-EG] one being that the structural changes have never occured
[Scooter-EG] now with that said -- every country is unique in itself whenever they make structural changes like this
[Scooter-EG] in Iraq's case they will deploy both actions methodically at the same time
[Scooter-EG] In fact, just my opinion, I think they will see multiple hits to the value of the dinar over a period of 0 - 24 months
[Scooter-EG] see -- they have to be careful that they don't wrangle the currencies equilibrium point
[Scooter-EG] why you ask
[Scooter-EG] well it could be catastrophic for exports if they goto high
[Scooter-EG] or if they stay the same -- they will never produce that middle class they are searching for
[Scooter-EG] it's one of the biggest problems China is facing right now
[Scooter-EG] they intentionally kept their currency value low
[Scooter-EG] and undervalued
[Scooter-EG] and never thought to increase the wages of their employees and workers
[Scooter-EG] now -- they have a reverse bubble
[Scooter-EG] and inflation is somewhat out of control
[Scooter-EG] the news will tell you that they changed the value because of the US pressure
[Scooter-EG] no
[Scooter-EG] they had to increase the strength and tighten the supply of money before inflation went through the roof
[Scooter-EG] I don't know if anybody has been following gold
[Scooter-EG] the reason gold never broke through the resistance points is because the Chinese populace were selling off all their precious metals
[Scooter-EG] ok -- off topic
[Scooter-EG] but Iraq will in my opinion
[Scooter-EG] have their unique hybrid and methodically come out at certain strike points
[Scooter-EG] but
[Scooter-EG] this is a big one
[Scooter-EG] they do it in conjunction with deploying the new CPI for the lower denoms and
[Scooter-EG] they maintain the fidelity of the equilibrium price based on the economic growth of the country
[Scooter-EG] wow
[Scooter-EG] did I just write that
[Scooter-EG] that's pretty good
[Scooter-EG] hmm
[Scooter-EG] JK
[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] [3-BALL] Scooter do you think they get released from Chapter 7 in June when the UN has a vote? reasons yes or reasons no ?

[Scooter-EG] I hope they do
[Scooter-EG] it would certainly open the doors to diversifying their economy.
[Scooter-EG] they would be allowed to proceed with WTO assencion
[Scooter-EG] and several other economic barriers would be eliminated
[Scooter-EG] but to answer your question
[Scooter-EG] I would venture to say yes -- but nobody really knows
[Scooter-EG] I still think
[Scooter-EG] we don't have all the details of this
[Scooter-EG] there's numbers we don't have access too nor will we ever.
[Scooter-EG] I hope that answered your question 3-ball
[3-BALL] TY
[Scooter-EG] YW
[helend] thanks scooter
[Scooter-EG] There's another item
[Scooter-EG] you bet
[Scooter-EG] There's a new banking law that is somewhat interesting
[Scooter-EG] http://cbi.iq/documents/ordinance%20to%20regulate%20the%20operations.EN.pdf
[Scooter-EG] Ordinance to Regulate the Operations of Small and medium Enterprise Financing companies
[Scooter-EG] that's the name of it
[Scooter-EG] now why is this interesting -- here's whey
[Scooter-EG] give me one second
[Scooter-EG] my cut and paste isn't working properly right now
[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm -- so i'll wing it
[Scooter-EG] ok
[Scooter-EG] with this new rule
[Scooter-EG] Iraq will now be open to having the big boy banks come and play on their turf
[Scooter-EG] remember -- their banking sector is very very weak and young
[Scooter-EG] what this rule allows is for the Bank of America's and Suisse, or HSBC to partner locally with the iraqi banks
[Scooter-EG] all in the pursuit of achieving massive growth to the small to medium size businesses
[Scooter-EG] but
[Scooter-EG] they may have sme's borrow from Iraq
[Scooter-EG] and foreign banking systems
[Scooter-EG] including banks that particpate in it capital as a stockholder
[Scooter-EG] not to exceed 300% from the company captial a
[Scooter-EG] now why is this so important
[Scooter-EG] because they be able to leverage the massive captial from BoA's One Trillion dollar balance sheet at any time
[Scooter-EG] that's a lot of loans to small to medium size business they never had access to before
[Scooter-EG] largely because the beauracracy
[Scooter-EG] I just thought that was interesting
[helend] awesome
[Scooter-EG] anythingk else
[Scooter-EG] I have gone over my hour
[helend] I have three more questions, if you are not up to it, we can do it another time
[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm
[Scooter-EG] is this a trick question
[helend] Scooter-EG whoops actually four more
[DDF] Scooter-EG
[Scooter-EG] no way
[helend] Scooter-EG popular man scooter
[Scooter-EG] ok -- we'll keep the answers short and sweet
[helend] Scooter-EG ok, here comes the next one

[helend] [dddnnaarr] He might have answered this before I came in...what does he think of this news article
http://www.bondladyscorner.com/t42509-central-bank-of-iraq-s-new-currency-soon-to-market#68109

[helend] guess you will need to click on that one it isn't long
[Scooter-EG] I'm clicking but it's not moving for some reason
[Scooter-EG] hmmmm
[Scooter-EG] I think I blew a service on my laptop
[helend] Scooter-EG hang on one sec will bring it i
[Scooter-EG] not sure
[Scooter-EG] ok
[Scooter-EG] thanks

[helend] Central Bank of Iraq's new currency ... soon to market **TY Bob/Kaperoni at Dinar Alert** MP from Kurdistan Alliance bloc Mahma Khalil, for contracting the Iraqi Central Bank with (4) known international companies for the printing of new currency for the printing of the new national currency after you delete the zeros of which, describing the project to delete the three zeroes from the currency as "successful" and the time is ideal for replacing them. Khalil (of the Agency news) on Sunday: The project to delete three zeros from the local currency is one of the important projects and at all levels, whether for economic or security to the country, pointing out that the topic of the program by the central bank and a good time to replace the ideal currency, which will be early next year. He pointed out: that the central bank has contracted with (4) well-known international companies, and solid in the field of international currency printing, without giving their names or nationalities, saying: that it is too early to announce the nationalities of those companies. Khalil added: The new currency will be a high specification and have the properties of security is very high is not as easy to be forged, in addition to the federal government has (25) organ The allergic and high distinguishes new currency counterfeit of good as well as import (25) another ATM by the central bank to detect counterfeit currency, calling for attribution and support this project because it will reform the Iraqi currency by reducing the money supply raised in the local markets. The Attorney-Khalil: The new currency will consist of the categories (1, 2, 5, 10, 25 and 50, 100, 200) dinars, as well as small metal groups (50 and 250) fils. As revealed deputy governor of the Central Bank of the appearance of Mohammed in favor of the existence of safety properties of high-tech and scientifically advanced in the new Iraqi currency after deletion of zeros of the three of them. Saleh said in an earlier statement that the Central Bank of Iraq h
has reached advanced stages of preparations for the mission logistics project to delete the three zeroes from the Iraqi currency, and after obtaining approval from the federal government to implement it will be working on a larger scale because it is a legitimate strategic interest to the general of the Iraqi people.

[Scooter-EG] WOW
[Scooter-EG] did that come out today
[helend] Scooter-EG kaperoni posted that one tonight
[helend] Scooter-EG yes it did
[Scooter-EG] Here's the interesting part of that
[helend] Scooter-EG it was all interesting to us lol, we want to see what your take is
[Scooter-EG] nope -- still not working
[Scooter-EG] the last sentence
[Scooter-EG] and after obtaining approval from the federal government to implement
[helend] Scooter-EG yes, that ws the one I noticed the first time I saw this
[helend] Scooter-EG as if it is done
[Scooter-EG] that's very interesting indeed
[Scooter-EG] yea
[player46]
[helend] Scooter-EG it is posted in our forum too if you want it for later
[Scooter-EG] other than that, it's a great, stong, positive article
[!bubbies] and after obtaining approval from the federal government to implement it will be working on a larger scale because it is a legitimate strategic interest to the general of the Iraqi people.
[Scooter-EG] WOW
[Scooter-EG] They talk about the categories and small metal groups
[Scooter-EG] what's interesting is that when you goto the founding document of this project
[Scooter-EG] they actually show the pictures of those bills
[Scooter-EG] way back in 2002
[Scooter-EG] and it's identical to that plan
[helend] Scooter-EG hmmm, that is very interesting
[Scooter-EG] Yep -- the original plan called
[helend] the bill they show in the article looks like it is the 1973 1 dinar
[Mikey] yup, thats the 73 note
[Scooter-EG] for the improvement of living standards for the Iraqi People
[Scooter-EG] one the worlds wealthiest countries
[Scooter-EG] but the people are living on $2.00 a day
[helend] Scooter-EG crazy isn't it?
[Scooter-EG] it is
[Scooter-EG] next

[helend] redvette] Scooter - What do you think of the 2 state banks merging?

[Scooter-EG] hmmmm
[Scooter-EG] that's an interesting concept
[Scooter-EG] I haven't really thought about those two -- Rafadain and Rasheed -- merging
[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm
[Scooter-EG] they can't do anything until their books are cleared up
[Scooter-EG] that's one
[Scooter-EG] but if you noticed
[Scooter-EG] recently, Rasheed and the state Bank of Iraq want to merge
[Scooter-EG] largely because they need to increase their capital
[Scooter-EG] i would have to think about that concept before making coment
[Scooter-EG] comment
[Scooter-EG] but a very interesting questions
[Scooter-EG] How about you give me
[Scooter-EG] a week and then re-ask that question
[helend] Scooter-EG got two more, you game?
[helend] Scooter-EG
[Scooter-EG] I'll have more data points
[Scooter-EG] sure

[helend] gemini5] has anyone asked Scooter.....Will they back have to back the RV dollar for dollar or will they use fractional banking...It will take a lot more reserves to back it dollar for dollar

[Scooter-EG] hmmmmm --- first of all -- anything is possible in this event
[Scooter-EG] and nobody knows
[Scooter-EG] with that said ---
[Scooter-EG] They would need to increase their reserves significantly and change the structure of the money supply
[Scooter-EG] as compared to the current listing of finances
[Scooter-EG] typically -- the note that is issued and sent out
[Scooter-EG] to circulation will need to have some backing
[Scooter-EG] in terms of fractional banking --- that new ordinance is pretty much insuring they will be doing quite a bit of that
[Scooter-EG] see not only do they have the problem of the reserves being too low right now
[Scooter-EG] but they don't have enough to sustain that figure
[Scooter-EG] now
[Scooter-EG] with that said
[Scooter-EG] nobody knows what they have in their back pocket
[Scooter-EG] nor do we know anything about the amounts of the Proxy countries
[Scooter-EG] next
[helend] okay last one, you are incredible scooter, thank you so much for your time, here it is

[helend] [player46] Scooter you mentioned that you have changed your view on the 2013 timing. Could you elaborate. TY

[Scooter-EG] good question -- it's been stumping a lot of us
[Scooter-EG] um -- I've changed my view from the original time i invested
[Scooter-EG] in fact I've changed twice so far
[Scooter-EG] at least strategically
[Scooter-EG] for example
[Scooter-EG] originally back in 2005
[Scooter-EG] I took a look at typical Fibronaci growth rates for a country that size
[Scooter-EG] and determined ..35 by 2013
[Scooter-EG] then
[Scooter-EG] came the 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 budgets
[Scooter-EG] heck -- even all the way back to 2006 budgets
[Scooter-EG] they were stockpiling the drainage funds on top of having two separate budgets
[Scooter-EG] then came the Ministry of Planning document
[Scooter-EG] and the IMF Country Report
[Scooter-EG] but the big one was the world Bank DPL
[Scooter-EG] DPL -- Development Plan
[Scooter-EG] They were all saying the same thing in harmony
[Scooter-EG] and that's odd
[Scooter-EG] see, I don't believe any document is truly reflecting what's going to occur until three sources are saying the same thing
[Scooter-EG] that puts the information at the 96% percentile
[Scooter-EG] now back to today
[Scooter-EG] when I look at all those listed items fromt he world bank --- and they aren't done yet -- at least on paper
[Scooter-EG] and
[Scooter-EG] on top of that
[Scooter-EG] they are outwardly showing a HYBRID scenario with the news of the three zeros
[Scooter-EG] every other day
[Scooter-EG] then i go back to the multi tiered approach
[Scooter-EG] time specifically with increases in value jumps at significant spots of their economic growth
[Scooter-EG] I hope that answered that question
[helend] and that was the last one scooter
[Scooter-EG] ohhhhh man
[helend] thank you so much
[Scooter-EG] You are so welcome
[Scooter-EG] my pleasure
[Scooter-EG] those were great questions
[Scooter-EG] well folks -- I must depart
[Scooter-EG] but once again
[Scooter-EG] I enjoyed my time here at the BL's place
[helend] Scooter-EG please don't be a stranger, don't we have the bestest group of members, they were wonderful
[Scooter-EG] Indeed !!!
[Scooter-EG] thanks again !
[Scooter-EG] cioa for now
[Scooter-EG] poooooooooooooooooooooof

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